The average car owner drives the average number of miles and pays the average price for a gallon of gas. That may or may not be at all related to you. I have very little in common with the average driver; this doesn’t describe me at all. It turns out, I’m one of the rare ones - I saved WAY more than they estimated. Here are the components that go into how much money you will save (or not):

1. Savings - Oil changes. The car you own dictates how much you pay for an oil change. If you buy the materials yourself and do the labor yourself, you probably pay around $25. If you use a Jiffy Lube type place, it’s probably closer to $50 or $75. If you go to a dealer, you probably pay less for a mainstream car (my Toyota dealer did them for $30 on a special that never ended). If you have a premium car, you may have a much higher cost maintenance plan where they do other things at the oil changes. None of this matters with a Tesla. These costs just go away. For me, that was an oil change every 3-5 weeks, depending on the time of year. $50 per 5000 miles is exactly $0.01 per mile.

2. Savings - Price of gasoline + Efficiency of your current vehicle. For a round number, gas at $3 a gallon that gets you 30 miles per gallon will cost you about $1 to go 10 miles, or 10 cents per mile. As the vehicle ages and fuel economy worsens, this changes but not by much. As gas gets more expensive (and charted over time, that’s what it does), this really starts to add up. At current example pricing above, it costs (for that same 5000 mile oil change interval above) about $500 for gasoline.

3. Savings - Brakes. All electric cars regenerate electricity as aggressively as possible in lieu of using brakes to slow down. This results in a significant savings in brake wear. In my last Prius (for example), I put over 100,000 miles on it and didn’t touch the brakes. Last inspection the car had 4/32 left (twice the thickness needed to pass inspection). Brake cost varies significantly depending on whether dealers do the work or independent shops (or you do it yourself), but a front brake job generally costs about $200 in materials and about $200 in labor to complete it properly. This will last about 40,000-60,000 miles in most cars, so we can average 1 cent per mile saved and probably be safe.

4. Extra Cost - Electricity. This is where it gets difficult to calculate. Electricity prices wildly vary across the US for reasons it’s not worth getting into here. The average price per kWh is $0.12. Using that number, and using an average of .31 kWHr/mile (my average), that $.037 per mile.

5. Extra Cost - Vehicle. Your mileage will vary here depending on your tastes, what you own now, and what you will buy. It is common to see people buying more expensive EVs than gas cars (people are regularly trading in secondhand Prius’ for new Teslas as an example), but you will have to do your own math on this one. We will use myself as an example. A new Prius (equipped like I would want it) would be about $33,000. The Tesla would be about $46,000. There is a difference in build quality of the vehicles, quality of the interior, and sheer enjoyment when driving, but that can stay out of the discussion for now. If the vehicle is assumed to last for 175k miles (they both will last longer), the price per mile of a Prius is $0.19 per mile. The cost of the Tesla is $0.26.

Adding it up per mile (in cents)

Prius
Oil Change $0.01
Fuel Cost $0.10
Vehicle $0.19
Total $0.30 / mile

Cost to drive 150k miles:
$45,000

Factors that aren’t taken into account

• Oil changes take time out of a day to have done. Oil changes were always a drag for me, and I was always late for my next work appointment after having one done.

• If you don’t keep the vehicle for a long time, the trade in value of a normal car tanks after about 60,000 miles. The trade in value of a Tesla has (so far) been incredible. When traded in on the next car, the Tesla will hold a significant amount of its retail value. This will eventually become more mainstreamed, but for the foreseeable future, a number of factors will keep this the way it is.

• Teslas are more expensive to insure than many cars. While they are statistically less likely to get into accidents (by a huge margain), they are very expensive to fix if they do. Parts are hard to get, and you have to deal with the company after the sale (see below). When I bought my car, Tesla’s own partner in insurance (Liberty Mutual) was quite expensive and didn’t even know what a Model 3 was. They now offer the best rates available (for me).

• Tax credits already exist for internal combustion vehicles - they are built into every gallon of gas you buy. They reward you for driving more, not just for driving the vehicle. For a Tesla that can’t take advantage of the massive tax subsidies hammered into the fuel industry, a single federal tax or state tax credit may apply to the purchase. Tax credits for electric vehicles can be over $10,000 or as little as zero, depending on where you live and when you buy the vehicle.

• Productivity - if you buy an AutoPilot equipped vehicle, you will arrive at work (or home) much more relaxed than you ever imagined would be possible. It doesn’t take long before you forget how stressful it was to drive a non-AP vehicle. This too will eventually spread throughout the auto industry as it spends money at an unprecedented rate on developing autonomous technologies. This absolutely counts as a net positive though - my personal productivity has gone up significantly since driving the car.

• But what if it’s all about the money? If it is, and these other things don’t matter to you, go buy a used Prius! You get great fuel economy, some insulation for when fuel prices rise, and the biggest downside is that they are the most uncomfortable vehicle I’ve ever driven.